After years of preparation, months of fine-tuning, and a nail-biting final countdown, the Baltic states officially flipped the switch - permanently and irrevocably cutting ties with Russia’s power grid in the early hours of Saturday February 8, 2025. After two days of island mode testing, the Baltic TSOs synchronised with Continental Europe the following day at 3pm. It was a defining moment for Baltic energy independence.
At E-world 2025, industry leaders gathered for the panel “From BRELL to ELL: Why, When, and How?” to break down what it took to make this happen and what comes next (see full video below). With a packed audience and plenty of questions, the discussion tackled the big wins, the unexpected twists, and the challenges and opportunities ahead.
(Scroll to the bottom for the full recording and the slides).
Our very own Michael Coulten set the stage with a sharp and data-driven presentation:
“The Baltic states were essentially getting free grid balancing from Russia. But as they pivoted westward to the European Union, they needed full control over their own energy security.”
For decades, the BRELL agreement - linking Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - kept the Baltic grid tied to Russia’s vast, inertia-heavy system. Michael emphasized that while the Baltic Synchro project to break this tie and join the CESA has been in progress since 2009, the war in Ukraine required an acceleration of the timeline.
With interconnections to Finland, Sweden, and Poland now operational and significant investments within the Baltic TSOs grids, the infrastructure to stand independently was in place. But the transition required more than just cables and substations; digital tools played a crucial role, particularly the Baltic Balancing Capacity Market (BBCM) platform, which we proudly delivered with our partner N-SIDE.
"Digitalization has been an absolute key enabler; without it, none of this would have been possible.”
Then came the panel discussion, moderated by Christoph Malzer.
Marine Cornelis - Energy policy expert and advocate for consumer rights at Next Energy Consumer
Kalle Kukk - Estonian energy systems expert R8Tech, former Elering
Raúl Maza Ruiz - European energy market specialist N-SIDE
Peeter Pikk - Energy entrepreneur at Baltic Energy Partners OÜ
Michael Coulten - Business Development Lead at Navitasoft
Talking to people that were involved in the project gave us an unfiltered look at the challenges, risks, pressures, and the lessons learned from making such a bold move. One key takeaway was that technology alone wasn’t enough.
“Trust is an infrastructure that we can’t ignore.”
That sentence by Marine Cornelis from Next Energy Consumer was burned into the listener's mind. She argued that the €1.6 billion price tag was more than just an investment in physical assets; it was an investment in confidence. Energy independence had to be more than a geopolitical win - people would ultimately judge its success by what happened to their electricity bills.
But the transition itself was not without some hiccups. An unplanned power plant outage in Lithuania occurred during the crucial island mode operation. “It was a baptism of fire,” Michael Coulton admitted in his presentation. The incident tested the system under real-world stress, yet the grid remained stable, proving the robustness of the new grid balancing regime and tools.
Meanwhile, the political significance of the transition was clear. Kalle Kukk summed it up: “Finally, 33 years after regaining independence, we are truly independent from Russia. There is no reasonable price tag for that.” The creation of new balancing markets was one thing, but severing the last significant dependency on a potentially hostile neighbor was something else entirely.
No further surprises
The first few days after the transition came with some market turbulence. Initial frequency containment reserve (FCR) prices spiked beyond expectations, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in the first few days of a brand-new balancing market.
But as Raúl Maza Ruiz of N-SIDE proudly noted: “BBCM is working as designed, but the real test will be how liquidity and pricing evolve over time.” The coming months would determine how balancing costs, flexibility investments, and the integration of PICASSO (the European aFRR energy market platform) shape the market.
The discussion also touched on new business opportunities. “The demand side must come into play now. The majority of future flexibility will come from the demand-side response,” emphasized Kalle Kukk. He saw a rising need for harmonized European rules to enable demand-side participation in energy markets.
Another major shift is in market volatility, as Peeter Pikk recognized: “We have created new markets, but at the moment, prices are crazy high. This will settle, but for now, market participants are still figuring out the rules.” Kalle Kukk doubled down on this: “The name of the game for the years to come is volatility.”
Michael wrapped up with a reflection on execution: “We delivered the BBCM platform on schedule, on budget, and without any faults.” The transition proved that even the most ambitious energy projects can be realized with the right technology, partners and collaboration.
So the second weekend in February saw the Baltics not just disconnecting from Russia - they fully integrated into a new energy system that requires adaptability, investment, and trust. Challenges remain, from ensuring liquidity in the balancing markets to developing then integrating new flexibility assets in markets set for a major shift towards renewable generation.
The region has now taken control of its own energy future. It is no small thing. An impressive achievement by the Baltic TSO’s and a huge milestone in the geopolitical transition of the sovereign Baltic nations.
This is an ongoing story well worth following.
Here's the full video (panel discussion begins at 31:00):
Check out the slides:
“
